Hazard Applied Research at Chapman University
 
The purpose is to explore the role of the Hazard Research Group in the Center of Excellence in Earth Observing (CEEO) of the Schmid College of Science at Chapman in order to promote:

• Development of applied research in hazards, and
• Development of with insurance, real estate and other industries regionally and nationally

These developments include specific projects, some examples given here:

• Hazards due to Climate Change

The group’s contributions will be to provide understandings of hazard characteristics in terms risks and to help provide information to various stakeholders to account for climate change conditions. Subjects will include:

• Current hazard characteristics (probability, severity, and duration)
• Recent changes in hazard characteristics
• Projection of hazard characteristics under climate change conditions

 The hazards research group within CEEO is well positioned to achieve a broad and in-depth understanding of current and future hazard characteristics that are applicable to the insurance industry. The group is made up of Chapman faculty members, and scientists that have research records in climate-driven hazards and long-term associations with NASA and NOAA.

Region-specific hazards include sudden extreme events such as floods and wildfires, chronic events such as droughts, and incremental changes such as sea level rise. Natural hazards, like droughts, wildfires, and floods are becoming more frequent and more intense in California. Consequences are losses in population, infrastructures, economic production, and ecosystems.

• Earthquake Forecasting

Chapman seeks partnerships for state-of-the-art forecasting of earthquakes and economic forecasting of associated risks. The prospect of a major earthquake M = 7 or above, as expected to occur in the next 20-30 years in California, could well be catastrophic, particularly if it struck near major populated areas (such as the 2010 quakes in Haiti, Chile or Mexicali).

The question naturally rises whether major earthquakes can be predicted. This remains a forefront issue in science and if a reliable system could be built, it would have tremendous implications for saving lives and averting economic disaster. In particular, there is a real possibility that within a few years, combining large amounts of data and

 
information, particularly from satellites, scientists will be able to forecast earthquakes. The Chapman team works closely with NASA and FEMA scientists and is part of a select group of international scientists who communicate among themselves in order to validate earthquake precursor signals, indicating an impending earthquake. Products will include:

• Statistical forecasting of earthquake risk regions
• Coverage of specific areas of California for forecasting of specific strong events
• Economic models of forecasting.

• Wildfires and Decision Support Systems

There is an increase in economic losses and insured property loss due to fires, with higher rates in the past several years in California and Western States. Out-of-control incidents occurring during the fire season, such as the fires of 2007 and more recently the Santa  Barbara fires of 2008 and the Station Fire of 2009. Access to data in near-real time would support operational issues and couple research with applications in assisting fire fighting local and State agencies. Advanced coverage with satellites and downloading of Direct Broadcast (DB) data from a satellite system located on the Chapman campus (Chapman has established the DB system), coupled with advanced modeling of how fires spread (we have already set up the weather forecasting system at Chapman—see Chapman homepage, http://forecast.chapman.edu/ ), will provide researchers, industry and first responders with unprecedented opportunities. The system will utilize information for both timely alarms and continuous monitoring of fires and will include an end-to-end Decision Support System (DSS), with Risk Management, Early Detection, Incident Management and Recovery Management. Besides CU personnel, the team will involve stakeholders from fire agencies, business, and insurance companies.

Sea Level Rise, Flooding
Similar considerations can be applied to sea level rise (large areas of Orange County and other parts of California are at risk). We can simulate the impacts of flooding and sea level rise to project potential impacts on real estate and insurance costs. The figure below illustrates this type of simulations.

Conclusion
The above approaches will Chapman partnership opportunities with comprehensive information on climate-driven hazards, long term sea level rise and more immediate hazards such as earthquakes, wild fires and flooding. Decision Support Systems will be jointly developed with industry and government agencies to fit their needs.